Summary:
Established SEO platforms like Conductor, Semrush, and Ahrefs are predicted to dominate the AI SEO space, leaving 95% of startups to fail.
'Lifestyle' businesses generating $1-3M ARR are defended by Rand Fishkin as a viable and rewarding model.
Startups may have an edge by being unburdened by legacy SEO ideas, allowing them to innovate AI-native solutions.
Venture capital interest in AI SEO startups may be overly optimistic, with the market favoring modest, profitable SaaS companies.
The industry is still figuring out how to track and optimize for new search behaviors like zero-click searches and conversational interactions.
The Future of AI SEO Platforms: A Battle Between Titans and Startups
The CEO of Conductor sparked a debate on LinkedIn about the future of AI SEO platforms, predicting that established companies will dominate, leaving 95% of startups to fade away. However, others believe that smaller, niche-focused startups could thrive by addressing specific user needs more effectively.
Why Established Companies Might Lead
Besmertnik, Conductor's CEO, argues that giants like Conductor, Semrush, and Ahrefs have a decade-long advantage in web crawling and data scaling, making them unbeatable. With hundreds of millions in annual recurring revenue (ARR) and vast engineering resources, these companies are fully committed to an AI-driven search future.
"Over 30 new companies offering AI tracking solutions have popped up in the last few months. A few have raised some capital to get going. Here’s my take: The incumbents will win. 95% of these startups will flatline into the SaaS abyss."
The Case for 'Lifestyle' Businesses
Rand Fishkin, cofounder of SparkToro, champions smaller, 'lifestyle' businesses generating $1-3M ARR. He highlights the joy of avoiding Fortune 500 bureaucracy, suggesting that scaling to a comfortable work-life balance is a worthy goal.
"Nothing better than a $1-3M ARR 'lifestyle' business... The bureaucracy, hoops, and friction of those orgs is the least enjoyable, least rewarding, most avoid-at-all-costs thing in my life."
Startups: Unburdened by Legacy
Daniel Rodriguez of Beewhisper argues that startups, free from legacy SEO constraints, can innovate AI-native solutions tailored to how users interact with AI chatbots and search.
"The new user journey is happening in a dynamic, conversational layer on top of the web. It’s a fundamentally different type of data that requires a new kind of engine."
Venture Capital's Role
Mike Mallazzo questions if the market can support multiple breakout startups, suggesting that venture capital interest might be overly optimistic. He sees potential for modest, profitable SaaS startups rather than unicorns.
New Search Behaviors and Data Challenges
With AI search evolving, traditional metrics like brand mentions and zero-click searches are under scrutiny. The industry is grappling with how to track and optimize for these new behaviors.
Featured Image by Shutterstock/Gorodenkoff
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